Ahh, now we are getting into my area of expertise! Well, lets break this down to the micro level. Lets say a 45 Kiloton nuclear grade weapon like Pakistan has is detonated at airburst level of Lower Manhattan (Downtown NY City)
Estimated fatalities: 475,380 Estimated injuries: 1,028,600
In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 3,153,119 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation. Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored.
Effects radii for 45 kiloton airburst:
- Fireball radius: 280 m (0.25 km²) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 250 m.
- Air blast radius (20 psi): 1 km (3.16 km²) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%. Optimal height of burst to maxmimize this effect is 0.65 km.
- Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.61 km (8.13 km²) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.
- Air blast radius (5 psi): 2.48 km (19.2 km²) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Optimal height of burst to maxmimize this effect is 1.02 km.
- Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 3.25 km (33.1 km²) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 9.4 cal/cm2.
NOW. . .lets make it a ground burst level detonation. . . .
Estimated fatalities: 300,710 Estimated injuries: 446,730 While the casualty numbers are significantly lower, its still pretty harsh.
In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 1,501,856 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation. Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored.
Effects radii for 45 kiloton surface burst
- Fireball radius: 360 m (0.41 km²) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased.
- Air blast radius (20 psi): 0.77 km (1.85 km²) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%.
- Air blast radius (5 psi): 1.57 km (7.77 km²) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread.
- Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.61 km (8.13 km²) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.
- Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 2.74 km (23.6 km²) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 9.4 cal/cm2.Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.
- Estimated total-dose fallout contours for a 45 kiloton surface burst with a 15 mph wind:
- Fallout contour for 1 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 159 km
Maximum width: 17.3 km
Approximate area affected: 2,580 km²
- Fallout contour for 10 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 107 km
Maximum width: 11 km
Approximate area affected: 1,210 km²
- Fallout contour for 100 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 55.3 km
Maximum width: 4.59 km
Approximate area affected: 354 km²
- Fallout contour for 1,000 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud (stem only) distance: 7.64 km
Maximum stem width: 1.78 km
Approximate area affected: 23.7 km²
The selected radiation level is too high for cloud fallout at this yield, and so this contour is not mapped. Maximum radiation contour for cloud fallout that can be mapped for this yield is 526 r/hr.
Now, with this in mind, depending on prevailing winds, the damage could extend as far as Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. What some people fail to realize, that while horrific, a single nuclear launch/detonation actually wont affect the majority of the United States. The only way that it could affect the majority of the US, is an upper atmosphere detonation, which would result in very little actual damage, but would have massive effects in regards to the EMP effect.
Now, if you transpose the detonation location from New York to Washington DC, the numbers actually are better!
Estimated fatalities: 119,130 Estimated injuries: 154,190, Much lower than New York City!
Of course, with this upside, there is also an upside, the majority of the elected leadership of the United States will be killed.
Now, if you want to go really big, lets say the 100 Megaton bomb like the Tsar Bomba in Russia's arsenal, then you can pretty much write off the North-Eastern Seaboard all the way Pennsylvania.
That being said, I would more than likely institute the bugout and start doing my recon sweeps. Normally as well, I would also start doing OP on the closest town as well.
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